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American Conference title odds

10,000 seasons
TeamProj. recordTitle gameWin American ConferenceBowl eligible
Memphis 9.6-2.4 68.4% 46.7% 100%
North Texas 8.3-3.7 49.8% 19.5% 100%
South Florida 9.2-2.8 25.0% 14.1% 100%
Army 7.3-4.7 19.1% 8.4% 93%
Florida Atlantic 7.8-4.2 14.3% 5.0% 98%
UTSA 7.7-4.3 13.2% 3.7% 96%
East Carolina 6.2-5.8 4.5% 1.3% 72%
Tulsa 7.1-4.9 2.6% 0.7% 93%
Temple 5.5-6.5 1.4% 0.3% 49%
Navy 4.6-7.4 0.6% 0.1% 21%
UAB 5.4-6.6 0.8% 0.1% 44%
Tulane 4.9-7.1 0.4% 0.1% 30%
Charlotte 0.3-11.7 0.0% 0.0% 0%
Rice 1.9-10.1 0.0% 0.0% 0%

Model: logistic win probability from the rating difference plus home field. Conference ties: head-to-head between two tied teams, then overall record, then a coin flip. The title game is played on a neutral field. A simplification of the official tiebreakers.

How to read this

Each simulated season starts from where every American Conference team really stands and plays the 49 remaining conference games, plus each team's remaining non-conference games. Title game is the share of seasons a team finishes in the top two, Win American Conference adds the title game result. Set the results by hand with the title race calculator, or follow the live standings.

The rest of the 2026 season played out ten thousand times from the real standings. See each team's projected record, its chances of reaching and winning the American Conference Championship Game, and of becoming bowl eligible. It is a model, not betting odds.

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Frequently asked questions

How are the American Conference title odds calculated?

The rest of the 2026 season is simulated 10,000 times, starting from each team's real record. Each game is decided by the two teams' strength ratings (scoring margin per game, steadied by last season early on) plus about two and a half points of home field. The top two in each simulated table meet in the American Conference Championship Game.

Are these betting odds?

No. This is a statistical model for entertainment, built from public results. It is not sportsbook pricing or betting advice.

What does bowl eligible mean here?

Six or more wins. The share of simulated seasons in which a team finishes with at least six wins.